Extremal Statistics in Biology

Does natural selection act on preexisting mutations, or do mutations emerge as a response to selection pressure? Salvador Luria and Max Delbrück won the Noble Prize for answering this question in 1943. Their key insight was to use fluctuations between replicates of an experiment. Under the hypothesis of spontaneous mutations, the distribution of surviving mutants over a series of replicates of their experiment has a tremendous variance/mean ratio (consistent with the data). In contrast, if mutations emerge as a result of selection pressures one would expect a Poisson distribution with variance equal to mean.

Luria and Delbrück's work foreshadowed important aspects of 21st century quantitative biology, where the study of fluctuations have played a central role. In some cases, biological insight can be gained by working in a small noise regime where Gaussian approximations are sucient. However, for many problems, such as Luria and Delbrück's experiment, it is precisely the breakdown of these approximations which carries the signature of the underlying biological mechanisms. In these problems, it is the extremal statistics which dictate macroscopic behavior.

The mathematical tools for dealing with these problems range from Large deviation theory and stable distributions. Both theories generalize the central limit theorem (and its functional analogues for stochastic processes), with the former concerning deviations beyond the usual $\sqrt{n}$ and the latter concerning the situations where variances are infinite. Fundamental mathematical progress in these areas has historically been motivated by statistical physics. Here too, extremal statistics have long been appreciated.

Now it is biology's turn to benefit from the mathematical progress made on disordered systems. This is a timely endeavor, since recent experimental advances have allowed us to probe single-cells and molecules with high resolution and take measurements across many scales. However, In the biological world, systems are not in equilibrium and assumptions about symmetry can not always be made. It is therefore non-trivial to leverage the existing literature on extremal statistics for many complex biological problems. To make progress, and do so in a way that benefits both biology and mathematics, it is essential that there be widespread communications between researchers in mathematics (pure and applied), biology and physics.

The overall goal of this workshop is strengthen the ties between researches from different backgrounds interested in biological problems involving extremal events and the underlying mathematics that emerges from these problems. In particular, we hope to facilitate interactions that generate both novel solutions to biological problems and new mathematical questions.

June 10, 2025
09:00 — 09:30
Registration & Welcome
10:00 — 10:30
Daniel Needleman (Harvard U, Cambridge)
Measuring and modeling the dynamics of mitotic error correction
10:30 — 11:00
Coffee Break
11:00 — 11:45
12:00 — 13:30
Lunch Break
13:30 — 14:00
14:00 — 14:30
14:30 — 15:00
Coffee Break
15:00 — 15:30
June 11, 2025
10:00 — 10:30
Ethan Levien (Dartmouth College)
Learning extremal statistics
10:30 — 11:00
Coffee Break
11:00 — 11:30
11:30 — 12:00
12:00 — 13:30
Lunch Break
13:30 — 14:00
Spencer Hobson-Gutierrez (NYU, New York)
Evolutionary Advantage of Cell Size Control
14:00 — 14:30
Calin Guet (ISTA, Klosterneuburg)
Biology, Context, Statistics
14:30 — 15:00
Coffee Break
15:30 — 16:00
Tibor Antal (U of Edinburgh)
Metastasis formation models
18:30 — 20:30
Workshop Dinner
June 12, 2025
09:30 — 10:00
10:00 — 10:30
10:30 — 11:00
Coffee Break
11:00 — 11:30
12:00 — 13:30
Lunch Break
14:30 — 15:00
Coffee Break
15:00 — 15:30
15:30 — 16:00
June 13, 2025
10:00 — 10:30
10:30 — 11:00
11:00 — 11:30
Coffee Break

Organizers

Name Affiliation
Ariel Amir Weizmann Institute of Science
Christoph Dellago University of Vienna
Ethan Levien Dartmouth College (New Hampshire)

Attendees

Name Affiliation
Oded Agam The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Tibor Antal University of Edinburgh
Naama Brenner Technion Haifa
Tamar Friedlander The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Sebastian Fürthauer Technical University of Vienna
Ulrich Gerland Technical University of Munich
Calin Guet Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Oskar Hallatschek University of California, Berkeley
Spencer Hobson-Gutierrez New York University
David Holcman Ecole Normale Superieure
Kavita Jain Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research
David Kessler Bar Ilan University
Jane Kondev Brandeis University
David Lacoste ESPCI
Herbert Levine Northeastern University
James MacLaurin New Jersey Institute of Technology
Daniel Needleman Harvard University
Simone Pigolotti Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology
Simon Rella Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Andela Saric Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Emmanuel Schertzer Universität Wien
Gasper Tkacik Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Julie Tourniaire Marie and Louis Pasteur University
G. Cigdem Yalcin Istanbul University
Preview of Ethan Levien - Extremal statistics in biology: growth, search and disorder
Ethan Levien (Dartmouth College): Extremal statistics in biology: growth, search and disorder
June 10, 2025 11:00 — 11:45
Preview of Julie Tourniaire - A branching particle system as a model of FKPP fronts
Julie Tourniaire (MLPU, Besancon): A branching particle system as a model of FKPP fronts
June 10, 2025 14:00 — 14:30
Preview of Ariel Amir - Extremal events dictate population growth rate inference
Ariel Amir (Weizmann Institute, Rehovot): Extremal events dictate population growth rate inference
June 10, 2025 15:00 — 15:30
Preview of Simone Pigolotti - Statistical physics of growing systems
Simone Pigolotti (Okinawa IST): Statistical physics of growing systems
June 11, 2025 11:00 — 11:30
Preview of Spencer Hobson-Gutierrez - Evolutionary Advantage of Cell Size Control
Spencer Hobson-Gutierrez (NYU, New York): Evolutionary Advantage of Cell Size Control
June 11, 2025 13:30 — 14:00
Preview of Kavita Jain - Effective parameters in population biology
Kavita Jain (JNCASR, Jakkur): Effective parameters in population biology
June 12, 2025 09:30 — 10:00
Preview of David Holcman - Extreme statistics in molecular and cellular biology
David Holcman (ENS Paris): Extreme statistics in molecular and cellular biology
June 13, 2025 10:00 — 10:30
At a glance
Type:
Workshop
When:
June 10, 2025 — June 13, 2025
Where:
ESI Boltzmann Lecture Hall
Organizer(s):
Ariel Amir (Weizmann Institute, Rehovot)
Christoph Dellago (U of Vienna)
Ethan Levien (Dartmouth College)