The novel and the extreme: Connections between record statistics and models of innovation

Simon Rella (ISTA, Klosterneuburg)

Jun 12. 2025, 13:30 — 14:00

Understanding how breakthroughs emerge at the edges of possibility is fundamental to the study of innovation and progress. Such breakthroughs often appear as extreme events—rare, record-setting occurrences that push the boundaries of what a system can achieve. In this talk, I explore the connections between record statistics and models of innovation, drawing on urn models, statistical physics through sample space reducing processes, and evolutionary biology via Ewens' sampling formula. I then introduce a simple record statistics model with occasional resets, designed to capture the effects of innovation within competitive environments, such as evolution under selection or the progression of elite sports performance.

Further Information
Venue:
ESI Boltzmann Lecture Hall
Associated Event:
Extremal Statistics in Biology (Workshop)
Organizer(s):
Ariel Amir (Weizmann Institute, Rehovot)
Christoph Dellago (U of Vienna)
Ethan Levien (Dartmouth College)